Are you tired of seeing headline after headline suggesting Kamala Harris is going to win in November? There’s no doubt, she is performing much better than Biden when he was on the ballot two months ago. But I think the media and many of the polling experts are missing big on this one.
I’m going to stop short of making a prediction right now, 48 days from election day, because there are too many factors that can happen in that period of time. One war or catastrophic economic event can completely change the dynamics of an election. Or…one of these several assassination attempts of Trump could finally work. Scary!
Here’s why I think if things continue to trudge along on the current trajectory, Trump will actually win the electoral college, which current battle ground state polling has as a tie.
Trump always outperforms polling when he’s on the ballot. 50 days out from the election, in both 2016 and 2020, Trump was losing nationally. He ended up beating Hillary Clinton in 2016 and was as close as it comes in 2020 of beating Joe Biden. Trump has NEVER led in the polls in previous election cycles. But has been up in many polls, including the recent highly credible NY Times/Siena poll.
Here’s how off polls are with Trump on the ballot…On election day of 2016, FiveThirtyEight predicted that Hillary had a 71.4% chance of beating Donald Trump in the electoral college. They even had Hillary winning Florida, which Trump won and helped tremendously in putting him in the White House.
FiveThirtyEight went on to correctly predict the 2020 election victor, but their model was completely wrong. On election day, they had Biden at an 89% chance of winning. The amount of certainty they had suggests the race shouldn’t have been close – but it was won by the slimmest of margins. A margin so small that cheating would’ve played a massive role.
As of today, FiveThirtyEight has Kamala’s chance of winning at 61% to Trump at 38%. He’s in a better position than he was in the previous elections with him on the ballot. If we’re being honest, whatever the polls are showing, we have to assume there is a large factor they are off by. And since Trump is at a tie in the battleground state polls, I’d conclude he’s actually winning those states right now.
All he needs is Pennsylvania and Georgia and the election is over!
Why Trump support is underreported in polls is no big mystery. All of us who interact with normal people on a day-to-day basis know what’s going on. There are many voters, especially suburban women, who quietly support Trump because of his common sense policies. They’ll never admit it to their friend groups or post about it on social media, but when they get in the voting booth on November 5th, they fill in that bubble by Donald Trump because they are sick of the failing economy and a border crises that Biden and Kamala created.
This is also the first election where new media will have a substantial influence on a significant block of voters. New media outlets are far more friendly to Trump than they are to Kamala Harris. More people are disregarding the corporate media narrative, which is in sync with the Democrat Party talking points. The people most influenced by new media are under 50 years old and less likely to be accounted for in polling data as pollsters struggle to find a good way of reaching a demographic that refuses to respond to phone surveys.
And let’s not forget one of the biggest factors that will help Trump this election cycle: the new ownership of Twitter (X) and how that impacts the social media world. In 2020, all major social media platforms were not only actively working against efforts to help Trump/hurt Biden, they were doing some of it at the behest of the federal government. Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter has changed the game. He is dedicated to a free speech platform and personally endorsed Trump. Facebook and other social media companies must move towards neutrality or risk suffering in the marketplace to their competitor.
These are just some of the factors that lead me to believe that Trump is poised to win the election in November on this current trajectory. Stay tuned to more coverage in the next month and a half as we break down our perspective of the upcoming election.
